Who Will Win The Democratic Nod?
In the 11th Congressional Seat, two Democrats are vying for the nomination to take on Congressman Tom Davis this November. Ken Longmyer, and Andrew Hurst are very different candidates. I personally feel that as Longmyer lost to Davis in '04-that the Democrats will nominate Hurst and try someone else.
posted by too conservative @ 2/03/2006 12:45:00 AM
10 comments
10 Comments:
Here's the difference -
They both have good campaign managers.
But Hurst has an army of volunteers. Longmeyer doesn't have that.
Regardless of who the democrats nominate, Tom Davis will defeat them handily.
So long as Tom Davis remembers to campaign like he has in the past, he should be fine.
His machine is pretty impressive when it is up and running.
However, if he decides to take it easy as his wife did, then he may be in for some difficult times.
Has nomination method been determined?
Hurst might have the power in numbers to win a primary, but the traditonal Dems. might pick Longmyer in a convention.
They know he got a late start last time around, and he's had 2 years to get it together. He's a know commodity for 11th Dist Dems by now.
Forget Tom Davis, check out Jim Moran. Who are we going to get to run against this guy?
Waltzing Matilda - it's virtually impossible to knock off Jim Moran in the 8th. No matter how many anti-semitic remarks he makes or how many times he forgets to take his happy pills and blows up at townhall meetings - the man is entrenched is the most liberal congressional district in the Commonwealth. The folks that run against him are merely sacrificial lambs put up by the Committee to carry the banner for Republicans. The sad thing is watching the Republicans figure out how to manipulate their positions to try and garner support from liberal/moderate "swing" voters in the 8th. They teeter on the edge of becoming full-swing democrats.
Tom Davis never takes it easy, that guy is everywhere!
This time will be different for Tom Davis. He may lose. Three reasons: Baseball, Terri Schiavo, and MetroWest. He took money from Jack Abramoff and Adam Kidan, and he was Tom DeLay's hand-picked NRCC Chairman. Also look at this link: http://pogoblog.typepad.com/pogo/2006/01/lobbyists_hold_.html
If you look at the FEC reports, Longmyer only has $92 on hand. Hurst has $37,000 on hand. Add that to the volunteers that centrist mentioned and I think it is clear who will win this.
The nomination process will be a primary if Longmyer doesn't drop out before June.
Davis would love to run against Longmyer again. He knows last time 10% of voters for Kerry crossed over to the Republican side to vote against Longmyer. Davis knows how to beat Longmyer.
Score another for Hurst: without taking money from PACs or institutions, he raised over $104,000 this quarter. Ken hasn't raised enough to file yet, has he?
FEC filing for Jan 1- Mar 31, 2006
Andrew Hurst(VA-11): 104,099
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